CNN: Joe Biden is polling better than any presidential challenger since 1936 (when modern polling began)

Mod: A brief caveat. I know that the careless sharing of positive polling information can lead people to do foolish things. However, since everyone living at my house has already voted, I am immune now and free to do as I wish.

Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936 (CNNlink): Former Vice President Joe Biden is dominating President Donald Trump in the latest polls. No, the election is not over yet, and Trump still has a non-negligible chance of winning. But a look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sunday was the latest poll to indicate Biden's strength. Biden led Trump by a 55% to 43% margin among likely voters. The poll was the third high quality national poll published this week that had Biden up by at least 10 points and above 50%. 

The other two being from CNN/SSRS and Fox News.

Indeed, the average of polls has Biden at around 52% or 53% and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points. This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day.

In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.

In other words, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.

This also continues to mark a massive difference with the 2016 campaign. While Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by as high as 7 points in October 2016, she never came anywhere close to approaching 50% of the vote. Trump merely had to win the lionshare of the undecided or third party voters (who would bolt their candidate) to earn a victory in 2016.

Of course, it's the Electoral College that matters. There are very few universes in which Trump could win the Electoral College, if he were to lose nationally by 5 to 6 points.

Even if every undecided or current third party voter went to Trump now, he'd still be down about 5 to 6 points nationally. 

That has never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point.

Mod: Much more similarly historic news is at the link. But please, do not read it if you think it could cause you to stay home and forget how to vote. I couldn't handle that much blame. Life is difficult enough as it is.

“The adage is based on the belief that voters have formed a fairly solid opinion about the incumbent, who is typically the better-known candidate. 

As for folks who say they’re undecided, they’ve usually decided that they’re not supporting the incumbent. But they haven’t thought enough yet to make a final decision. Once they do, they most likely wind up choosing the challenger.” In the case of incumbent president Donald J. Trump, “this year’s presidential race will certainly be one of the contests when the rule works. It’s basically a referendum on Trump.”

sierramadretattler.blogspot.com